Thursday, August 22, 2019

The Flower of Time

As new and believable data begins to bubble up from the hard to reach places where truth can still be occasionally found ... the statistics are remarkable.
According to the Bank of Russia data, in the first quarter of 2019, export earnings in US dollars formed 61.7% of the total amount. In comparison, in the analogous period of 2017, they constituted nearly 70%. Especially noticeable is the change in trade with the EU, where the dollar share in exports – for the first time ever – fell below one half. In the first quarter of 2019, 46% of exports from Russia to the EU were sold in dollars and 42% in euros. A year ago, this correlation was 53 and 33% respectively.
Of course, there is likely a notion to decry this data as "fake news" ... and that Roacheforque is a Putin puppet, or worse - an ISIS sympathiser. But I do think that the balance of evidence in other news supports the behavior of the dollar system's operational "measures".

Strong dollar policy has inverted, but supporting (weaker) dollar USAGE is as critical to obedient dollar vassalage as ever. Just ask Deutsche Bank, or Volkswagen. The former was subservient to Baffin, which irked the FED/ESF/UST/NYT quadfecta of Dollar Imperialism to no end, and the VW fines were a warning against further sedition.

We all know the reactions to Russia, China and Iran's impudence. Whenever the Euro is used in major trade settlement, especially for energy and systemic technology, the dogs of war are unleashed. Economic war is especially favored due to the advantages of USD stability, exchange rate pair dominance and depth of dollar correspondent accounts.

But that advantage is derived from the circularity of long term usage, which is now reversing at a rate (in both the quote, and further in the article from the first link above) that cannot be ignored. The well worn adage about systemic change "happening slowly at first, then all at once" is beginning to take shape. We still may have a few more years and a few new tangles to unravel, but the key here is:
Instead of 'greenbacks', the central bank has actively purchased yuan, euros and gold, whose inventory has already surpassed 2000 tons.
As made to be known, central banks on the whole have purchased a record amount of gold in recent months (and probably quite a bit more than is being reported) apparently with dollars. Since the stability of the currency system hinges on the dollar as the cleanest (most stable) in a somewhat musty laundry basket of currencies desperately, but inconspicuously dirty-floating to ZERO, the only holding which doesn't need another self-referential bail-out is gold. Buying it with dollars as they rise does seem to be the final act in the lead up to a new "accord".

See the systemic signs? See what the BIS is supporting? See what its member banks are abandoning?
There is no stopping the hand of time.

10 comments:

  1. If you read this 2015 speech from a Chinese general:
    http://chinascope.org/archives/6458/76

    Then you look at this urgent push for BRICS Pay and a PBOC digital currency/wallet system to take over M0 supply and retail payments (http://finance.sina.com.cn/zl/china/2019-08-21/zl-ihytcern2342631.shtml ) from Alipay & Wechat. And we note Russia's dumping of USTs, gold accumulation, Rosneft accepting Euros, Latin America also looking into a CBDC ( central bank digital currency), then we can see the general's thesis playing out right now. The dollar weapon is being dismantled.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Indeed Grumps. When one looks at the rate in which certain ratios are changing, other events make much more sense. Those events are shown to take place for one reason, when in fact they are happening "for another".

    Cheers,
    -R

    ReplyDelete
  3. Similar special dispatch / Timofeev:
    https://www.memri.org/reports/director-russian-ministry-finances-department-external-controls-timofeev-de-dollarization

    ReplyDelete
  4. The "Ratio" to look at is the Gold/Silver one...Gold = Sovereign Liquidity but Silver = Retail Liquidity..And the Chinese don't trust paper.. They are acutely aware that it "Is Just Ruler's Promises" ..They can buy a Chicken or Fuel with a Silver bit...Watch that sector for an insiders view of a baked in Currency Collapse.

    The Digital Ledger replacement as well is a farce as the youngies that built all of the backdoors to the code will just as conveniently stifle an electronic overlord with an alternate system..I think they call em security tokens...

    If you think the notional value of derivatives is large...Just wait until we live in a multi layered world where circles are being run around the technocrats via transactions that take more energy to resolve than they are worth.

    I'm optimistic, but at the same time alotta people are gonna die if they dont get their head around this.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, but the ratios I am referring to are the percentage decreases of global dollar usage. 5 years ago it was a point or 2, now it's 10. At that rate, what some had calculated to occur in 30 years will likely happen in 2.
      Timing is a bitch, but the true PGA longs have been patient for "long enough".

      Delete
  5. This might be Jim Willie's GoldTradeNote referenced here in this article. Nov 11th is target date. It's probably already been in use
    for oil trade with the Saudis.

    https://www.feixiaohao.com/news/4315085

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What is interesting is the live exchange rate table in the DC (digital currency) link. When the dollar system begins to break down, all legacy currencies will become volatile - FOREX will become irrelevant, as other methods of exchange rate valuation strive for dominance. That is when gold will come into play in the next big "accord" (IMHO).

      Delete
  6. https://www.forbes.com/sites/investopedia/2014/06/20/seven-emerging-currencies-challenging-the-forex-hierarchy

    ReplyDelete
  7. A VERY interesting discussion. About 7 months old, but very telling today ...

    https://youtu.be/G-pOuUxsTmk

    ReplyDelete