Tuesday, January 13, 2015

IT'$ THE "ALL ON" $ALE !

Of course the Chinese are on a shopping spree. International equity positions and goods like gold and oil while still valued in dollars are on sale - as long as economies remain truly equal in production - with prevailing exchange rates as the manufacture of profit. Such is the way of things today. But students of the past know that currency exchange systems do break down eventually, giving clear signals before they do:
As you ponder these thoughts, consider that; all economies today are truly equal in production as the exchange rates are the manufactures of profit!"
You see, all currencies now compete with each other, not for value of wealth but for "USAGE". The game has now become "whose currency gets used the most for trading" not for value against goods! It was easy to know the currency that got used for oil would win this game. Today, all currencies are traded against the dollar for it's usage as a medium of oil exchange! Take away that link and the entire currency/ debt exchange system, as we know it will collapse! The US$ must be maintained as the "most used" if the other currencies are to have a chance to survive.
This game has changed in that natural gas is now competing for "usage" value with oil. But crude oil can be stored for years. Oil, gold and equity positions in real world production of real world products are on sale in today's overvalued dollars, and China has many dollar credits to spend. As this is the Fire Sale of the century it is wise to spend them, and such usage increases the velocity of dollar credit flow at a time when stagflation had gripped the real world of the 99% and the things they need. And so ... this gives the other major trading currencies their final chance to survive.

Like the inexorable progress of natural evolution (slow that it may sometimes seem) the natural progress of man's systemic monetary events continues to find its equilibrium, despite the machinations of the "planners and controllers". They can artificially delay the inevitable, but such delays come with a cost, and that cost increases the weight of the pendulum in kind, as it swings back with defiance, bearing all the gravity of the real world behind it.
In the past, nations and states have lost all as " the world changed" and these entities lost the ability to trade, at a profit. It is as history, and happened many times. Today, it is not the same. The "wealth of nations" are held as "thoughts of value" not real value! And even these thoughts are "in debt" as they are owed to other nations. As it has always been, time moves the minds of people to change, and with this, the thoughts of value also change. In this day, as not in the past, the loss of paper value as a concept will destroy the very foundation of wealth that this economic system is built on. This drama has started and is well underway!
There are nations that will try to "resource a new currency" as the old financial system implodes. Oil or gold or both may be used. If it is done at the correct time, much will be gained by all! Fail this Attempt, and gold will never trade on an open exchange again, in our lifetime! We will see this end in our time.
It seems to me, as current events unfold, that no more accurate words have ever been written about the global economy, to describe what is happening here in the beginning of 2015, than these - written 17 years ago.
But consider - it has taken more than 17 years to reach this FIRE SALE, and there is much paper to burn, perhaps enough to last a year ... six months ... who can say? 17 more years? I think not.
But who can truly know?
As long as the future remains unclear (and it always will) there will be people to borrow from it, and wager upon it. That, I think, will never change.

But the world will not be ON $ALE in dollars forever. That my friends will surely change. I guarantee it!

3 comments:

  1. If the USD is tied so explicitly to it's use for trade in oil then why hasn't a 50%+ decline in the price of oil had a negative effect on the USD's value (assuming no change in the number of barrels traded using USD)? Wouldn't this result in lower demand for USD and presumably a decline in it's utility and value?

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  2. Not commensurately ... read above: "This game has changed in that natural gas is now competing for "usage" value with oil" (a point missed by many). But even if this was not the case, oil value alone cannot correlate to dollar value at par. Oil is still important, but no match for "all things denominated in USD".
    What has not changed (much) is USD inextricable usage and depth of use in trade overall. Use value of the currency is still inextricably tied to the viability of the entire FX structure.

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  3. Dollar was almost totally back by oil until around 2000, I think it's currently back by cheap Chinese labour more than petrol.

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